Friday, July 07, 2006

Is it time to consider Ben Sheets a bust?

Ok, so maybe bust is a bit too strong. But in a State that either loves it's sports heroes to a fault (Favre, Allen and Sheets) or hates them from day one (Surhoff, Day and Buckley) one has to wonder how far the faithful will stand by Gentle Ben. Let's look at the numbers...

After being taken tenth in the 1999 draft, Sheets made quick work of the Olympic games and then the minor leagues. Without breaking a sweat, he arrived in Milwaukee early in 2001. Since then, however, things haven't went so well.

Big Ben has yet to win 13 games in a season. Yes, there was that hardluck year in 2004. A 2.70 ERA and still a losing season. But Sheets needs to stay healthy to win games and he's only logged 225 innings or more once in his career. Moreover, Ben has held opponents to a batting average of .260 or lower only twice in his big league career.

Compare those numbers to the player taken one pick before Sheets in 1999. Barry Zito has won 13 games four times and is five wins from doing it again this year. Six times he has held batters to .260 or below. Zito is 36 games above .500 in his career while Sheets is nine games under.

One can argue that much of the difference between Zito and Sheets has to do with playing on a winning team. Obviously, that helps. But the number of pitchers that have surpassed Sheets season win total of 12 is astounding. The Dodgers have four, with Sele, Tomko, Penny and Lowe all reaching the 13 win plateau. The Cardinals have five. The Reds, who rival the Brewers futility, have three as does the Cubs. In all, 39 of the 64 National Leaugue starting pitchers in late June had won at least 13 games sometime in their career. THAT'S 61 %!! Eleven more pitcher that meet the magic number of 13 were set to come off the DL sometime soon.

Is Ben Sheets a bust? No, not yet. But the time has come that we think of him in more realistic terms... a nice number two behind the real ace of the staff, Chris Capuano. Those of you my age remember a time when this area loved nothing more than ripping on BJ Surhoff. You could not go a week without hearing someone on the radio, at work or in the papers remind us that "we could have had Will Clark!" Yet Surhoff had a very nice career. Part of me thinks it would be poetic for someone to think back on that summer of 99 and proclaim... "We could have had Peavy or Crawford or Blalock or....


wait for it....




PUJOLS!!!

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have a motto: It Could Always Be Worse. We could be waiting to see how Josh Girdley pitches when he comes back from rehab or wondering why B.J. Garbe can't hit a curve ball to save his life.

2:47 PM  

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